Operating Resilience Lab
Cash, Capacity & Stress - One Integrated Model

Most spreadsheets separate “runway” from “can we deliver?” This model couples them: revenue and costs drive cash; workload scales with revenue; effective headcount (with hire ramp) drives capacity; utilization flags when demand exceeds delivery ceiling.

Resilience here means: you see the binding constraint, how soon it appears, which deterministic shocks hurt most, optional uncertainty bands (Monte Carlo), and a composite risk stack for discussion - not a credit rating.

The tripwire is explicit so boards can align on “we need this much buffer.” If you set a floor, runway ends when cash crosses under that floor, not only when insolvent. If the model never crosses the floor in 60 months, the UI shows 60+ months.

The horizon is fixed at 60 months for performance and clarity. Events beyond that window are out of scope; export JSON or memo for offline longer-horizon work.

Both can matter. If cash binds first, the story is liquidity, collections, margin, and cost path. If capacity binds first, you may need hiring, productivity, or scope discipline even while cash still looks adequate - a common blind spot in runway-only calculators.

Downside and severe scenarios can change which constraint appears earlier; compare bars and the memo narrative side by side.

Organic path (compound or ramp) feeds the recurrence; then month-to-month MRR combines retention on the prior month’s base, new MRR, and the change in the organic path. That is a simplified analogue of expansion/contraction - not a full cohort model.

Event rows apply multipliers or one-off effects on top. Scenario bars (downside / severe) apply global revenue and margin stress on every month in addition to your base assumptions.

DSO is modeled as a flat reduction on cash contribution (not a full receivables ledger). Inventory (if set) adds recurring working-capital drag from “months of COGS” carry. Hiring uses a productivity ramp for capacity while cost is recognized from the hire month - matching “expensive before fully productive.”

Taxes, equity raises, multi-currency, and detailed AP/AR aging are intentionally out of scope; see methodology modal for formulas.

Rev % rows multiply that month’s revenue (stack carefully if multiple hit together). Margin points apply for a single month. Cash rows hit the bank once. Freeze hires zeroes new hires from that month forward; existing headcount costs remain.

Use events for narrative fidelity; validate material rows against your finance partner - compounding multipliers in the same month can bite.

Deterministic scenarios answer: “If revenue is −X% and margin −Y pts every month, what happens?” Monte Carlo answers: “If growth, margin, NDR, DSO, and hire timing wobble, what range of runways might we see?” - on the base path only in this tool.

Correlated Monte Carlo mode moves bad draws together (slower growth with pressure on margin and collections). Independent mode treats shocks separately - often more optimistic than reality when risks are linked.

This is classic one-way sensitivity - not joint stress. A line that trims runway sharply tells you where to validate data quality and where small planning errors swing outcomes. It complements Monte Carlo: sensitivity ranks linear-ish leverage; MC shows combined uncertainty.

It minimizes a simple “pain” score in a coarse grid. It is not linear programming, does not know morale or customer SLAs, and may suggest aggressive hiring cuts - always check utilization and delivery risk separately.

Use it to quantify trade-offs in a workshop, then decide what is actually implementable.

Composite score is capped and meant for conversation, not external reporting. Pillars show share of stack and saturation vs model caps. Assumption health flags contradictions (e.g. ramp target below starting MRR, thin M1 contribution with weak new MRR). Audit cautions fire from simpler rules and early-month cash shape.

Use all three: headline runway, risk stack narrative, and health/caution lists when prepping leadership or investors.

Local storage is per browser profile; it is not synced. For board packs, prefer JSON export or copy the share URL. Imports upgrade older v1/v2 state shapes to v3 automatically when possible.

Edit verbally for your audience - generated copy is a starting point, not governance. Printing uses your browser’s PDF save if you need a file.

Use the Scenario Engine when you want log-normal paths and survival percentages at massive trial counts. Use Risk Snapshot for a complementary risk lens. Use Ops Maturity and Strategy Health for broader operating and strategy scorecards.

For models tied to your books, governance, or recurring board cadence, contact us - this page stays client-side and illustrative by design.